Rain Wednesday Will NOT Likely Trigger Mudflows, But They Will Arrive This Winter
Written by 991KBU on November 27, 2018
Rain is expected arrive in Malibu this week.
Starting tomorrow afternoon with showers … heavier rain later.
But the intensity is forecast to stay below levels that could trigger debris flows in recent burn areas.
Malibu is looking like another half-inch of rain, while up to 2 inches is possible in the mountains, she said.
This leads to a conundrum … a problem … for Malibu.
You can see fire coming and defend your property … but you cannot see a mudlfow until it gets to you … and then there is nothing you can do.
That’s the bleak truth.
Here in Malibu … we are looking at three major canyons that can generate mudflow and severe flooding … as rain hits fire seared hillsides.
Trancas Canyon and Malibu West.
Zuma Canyon … and the Bonsall Drive and lower Busch Drive neighborhoods.
And the big one … Malibu Creek.
Lower reaches of Serra Estates … that were untouched by the fire … are facing the possibility of a sea of mud washing down the canyon from as far away as Oak Park … north of the 101 Freeway.
Also in the path: the shopping centers at Cross Creek.
The lagoon … and the colony.
All of those are in the path of potential debris flows.
Think Montecito … houses and roads suddenly washed away.
21 people killed there … 2 still missing and presumed dead.
In Montecito … people did not comply with voluntary evacuation warnings … and when the mandatory warnings came it was too late.
Malibu city manager Reva Feldman says the fire department here will issue skip the voluntary evacuation warnings … and go straight to mandatory evacuations.
Those on hills … out of danger from mud … could be cut off for days.
And new electrical … gas and water service line cuts could be expected.
That’s what happened in Santa Barbara County … people were stuck n their homes for weeks.
That’s … if we get heavy rain upstream.
Another light rainstorm … and no problemo,
But every rainstorm for the next 3 to 5 years … will trigger these types of worries … according to city officials.
