Atmospheric Flows Right Past Malibu – Area Escapes Heaviest Rain

Significant rainfall is expected to start about 9 a.m. Thursday in Malibu.  

Rainfall rates are expected to be a quarter-inch to a half-inch per hour.

That’s just enough to trigger debris flows in the recently burned areas” to experience debris flows.

Rainfall totals through the afternoon will likely end up between three quarters and an inch and a half … but south facing coastal slopes could get more if a thunderstorm or squall hits us.

Gusty winds are also expected. 

Flash flood watches are in effect for the burn areas.

Los Angeles County Public Works is issuing a PHASE 1 mudflow forecast on Thursday February 14 from 6 AM through 1 PM for all the burn areas in the Woolsey Fire.

This of course includes mud-endangered areas like Trancas Canyon, Malibu West, Escondido Canyon, Encinal Canyon and others.

Peak rain rates of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour will be possible across the area today.

And again . storm totals are now expected to range between an inch and a half and 3 inches.

Shallow mud and debris flows are likely across the Woolsey burn area. There is the potential for more significant and damaging debris flows.

Mudslides and rockslides will be likely across canyon and mountain roadways and Pacific Coast Highway, bringing increased threat of road closures towards Pt Mugu.

A PHASE 1 mudflow alert means small isolated debris and mudflows possible at specific public infrastructure locations. Streets may be flooded or blocked by debris. Reports of debris on private property may be received by emergency response entities. A few structures may be endangered, in addition to those advised to be prepared to evacuate with any forecast of rain.

And in the ocean … A locally driven swell will build across the coastal  waters today and bring high surf to mainly south and southwest facing beaches.

Surf of 4 to 7 feet will affect mainly south and southwest facing beaches today and this evening.

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5:28 am Malibu-area peak wind gusts and 24 hour rain totals

Leo Carrillo Beach 27mph .20 inches
Decker Cyn 21mph .63
Camp 8 Upper Las Flores 17mph 1.00
Malibu Cyn 13mph 1.06
Above Paradise Cove 26mph
KBUU Radio Trancas .45 inch

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Flood preparations have been going on all week.

L A County crews have been moving dirt and rocks around in the Trancas Creek channel …. above the Malibu West subdivision.

Piles of dirt have been placed in the concrete flood channel … which has some residents complaining on social media.

It appears that the dirt has been piled in the channel to be flushed down the steep creek … and into the ocean at Trancas Beach.

That’s how sand replenishes the beach.

We have a call in to L A County Public Works to confirm that theory.

malibu West is the only neighborhood in Malibu protected by L A County flood control basins. There is talk about installing similar dams and catch basins in malibu park … but people in other neighborhoods may be looking with envy at the protective work being done by the county at Malibu West.