UCLA Professor: (Chinese COVID Death Rate) x (Malibu’s Aged Population) = 139-244 Deaths

We start today’s newscast with an editorial note.

The news is scary. 

There are rumors.

Here at KBUU … it is our job to separate rumor from news.

You may have heard the rumors about a COVID-19 medical case in Malibu.

We have heard them.

We have reported them.

Three nongovernment sources have told us the same information.

The government will not confirm or deny.

Federal privacy laws are getting in the way of verifying what appears to be reliable fact … with government officials.

This newscast must balance the need to avoid inciting panic … with the very real facts that are developing in our neighborhood … our city  … our world.

With that in mind … here is today’s news.

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If the Chinese medical data is accurate … a big if … there is a scary possible death toll from the virus here in Malibu.

If the three reports anecdotal reports that we have heard are accurate … and the government is not denying them … then there is a coronavirus patient in Malibu.

And that person is not – repeat not – a danger to the community,

And the L A County public health officer delivered a statement to the community last night … that did not address any of this.

A UCLA medical school assistant professor has scary news for Malibu

Ariana Anderson is an Assistant Professor at UCLA’s medical school.

University of California, Los Angeles.

She says in a report issued yesterday … that

COVID-19 is projected to infect between 40-70% of the worlds’ population.

U-S hospitals are not showing accurate COVID-19 infection rates because of the shortage of test kits.

The testing restrictions suggest that community transmission may not be detected because it is not being tested.

Anderson took the 40 to 70 percent infection rate prediction … and applied it to the population data for Malibu.

Malibu has an older population.

She used the Chinese government case fatality rates … and applied them to Malibu.

The numbers are staggering.

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“I wanted to see how the virus I want to see how the virus would play out here in Malibu as we have an older demographic here which makes us more susceptible to the disease.”

U C L A assistant professor Ariana Anderson with mindblowing statistics.

Between 139 to 244 Covid 19 deaths can be extrapolated by applying Chinese data to malibu demographics.

So … why does this matter … other than scaring people out of their wits.

Because there is a report … an unverified report … from several sources … all saying the same thing …. a report that officials will not respond to.

A report that there is a COVID-19 exposure case under self-quarantine here in Malibu.

KBUU has been tracking news of a Malibu resident who had been on a cruise ship in Asia … who was evacuated to Travis Air Force Base in northern California.

That person has been taken to her Malibu home for self-quarantine.

She does not exhibit symptoms …. she was on a cruise ship and airplane with affected persons … but she apparently is merely under observation.

We have been asking county and city officials all day yesterday for information on this.

Confirmation,

Or a denial.

Or a correction.

Or a request not to broadcast a rumor.

No reply.

We have specific questions … these questions.

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(1) Was the person who was transported to Malibu from Travis AFB medically isolated as she made her way to her home?

(2)  Does DPH believe she has been isolated in her home, with no spread of the virus from the home?

(3)  Does garbage from such a house need to be treated as haz mat?

(4)  I assume there is no risk to the community from placing someone in self-quarantine, if protocols are followed.  How is the DPH enforcing compliance with protocols?

(5)  Is it possible that someone who lives in this home could have been unwittingly infected?

(6)   If that person works in a public place, such as a grocery store or restaurant, is there a threat to patrons?

(7)  What is your takeaway for Malibu residents: should we be worried about this case?

(8)  What rumors that you may have heard are incorrect, and can you set us straight?

Our city does not have a health department…. we hire the county.

The county is not answering those questions.

The city put our a statement.

It reads … in part …

The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health … to protect patient privacy …  does not provide details of specific cases.

“Public health investigations, under state and federal law, are confidential.

“Specific information is disclosed by LADPH when necessary to prevent the occurrence of additional cases. LADPH will provide additional information regarding Novel Coronavirus cases only when:

• a new case of the virus is confirmed;
• if a person confirmed to have the virus has died;
• and if there is a confirmed case at public locations and it is necessary to identify additional persons at risk for being infected.”

So .. in other words … if a coronavirus patient has been transported to Malibu for self-quarantine … we are not going to get answers to those specific questions that we posed to the city and county yesterday.

That brings us back to UCLA researcher Ariana Anderson. and her math…

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“Right now there is little being done for containment.  So if we have for example low containment with 70% of the people getting infected there’s going to be about 244 fatalities in Malibu.

“If we have high containment that we might be able to bring the infection rate down to 40% … and we would see about 139 fatalities.”

139 fatalities in Malibu … if we do a good job with containment.

That’s almost hopeless.

What does this mean???

What should we do in Malibu?

Again … professor Anderson say the arrival of the virus in Malibu means we should take steps … like every community in the nation.

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“If there is a live case in Malibu we need to be extra careful.

“And we need to make sure that we are all following precautions and making sure that the persons in immediate contact to us to our also taking precautions too.

“It doesn’t do much good it for one person to be quarantined if their spouse if their housekeeper if the repair man who fixes the washer and dryer who is coming in and out of their house because these are all sources of disease transmission.

“It also means too though  that this person is not going to be the only person that we are going to see.

“We know for example that Los Angeles just had their first community acquired case today. This is our first community acquired case.

“And this means that it’s if there’s one there’s 100. There are many people walking around right now have the virus and don’t know what because you don’t really show symptoms until at least five days.”

REPORTER: “So is this a red alarm in your opinion should people be scared right now are should they be prepared right now or is there a difference.”?

ANDERSON: “I think we could all be prepared there are many effective things you can do to limit your risk of getting the disease.

“Now … I happen to be in a very low risk category because of my age. I have young children who are also in a low risk category.

“However that does not mean that I should sit back and you know just be happy to get the disease.

“Because if I get the disease I am going to give it to someone else … and that person could be older … they could have a compromised immune system.

“For example, I spoke with one mother last week who has a child who has a child who has a compromised immune system … here in Malibu.

“Her child – for example – does not have the ability to get effective vaccinations because his immunity system does not respond to them.

“These are people here in our community who are at risk of it … and if we don’t take it seriously … then we are endangering everyone around us.”

And that brings us to the local schools.

Stairway to the Stars … will bring hundreds of school kids from Santa Monica and Malibu together for a series of joint concert performances.

Anderson plans to send her kid.

And attend herself.

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“My daughter is actually in that concert and we had previously invited grandparents to come visit us. We are now going to be uninviting grandparents because again these are high-risk individuals.

“We don’t want to have grandma come and take a picture and take the virus back home with her.”

REPORTER: “But you are safe yourself going to this with your child to the stairway?”

ANDERSON: “Well – again – I’m in a low risk category. I would prefer that at this time that they rethink this and postpone it until the virus is over.”

But she plans on going.

At the Santa Monica Malibu School District … the decision last night … the show must go on and Stairway To The Stars will continue with rehearsals this week … and performances next week.

And the school district cautions against scaring people.

And we at KBUU radio take that advice to heart.

And as for the person who may be self-quarantined in Malibu … with the virus … city manager Reva Feldman tells us this.

“Let’s remember we are a community of good and kind people … and if one among us is sick or struggling we are a community of people who care and will support those in a time of need.”